Week in Review: The Dion Waiters Variable

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No player causes as much anxiety in the gut of Thunder fans than Dion Waiters. The enigmatic fourth-year player, who was drafted fourth overall in 2012, embodies the very meaning of “inconsistent.”

Waiters is the kind of player who can explode to the tune of 25 points on 7-10 shooting, including 4-5 from three (as he did against the Washington Wizards on November 10, 2015). But he’s also the kind of player who can score just 1 point in 31 minutes on 0-7 shooting (as he did against the Atlanta Hawks on November 30, 2015). To call Waiters frustrating would be a colossal understatement.

The biggest detraction to Waiters is his inefficient scoring. For example, Waiters’s shot total exceeded his point total in 14 games this year.  A lot of his inefficiency has been blamed on his love of mid-range shots, mostly coming off step-back jumpers. But over the last three games, Waiters has averaged 18.7 points per game on 53/46/71 shooting splits (and a TS% of 63%), plus 2.3 assists, evidencing improved shot selection.

It’s a small sample size, but it begs the question, is this the start of a new-and-improved Dion Waiters, or merely more evidence of his maddening inconsistency? To investigate, I compared Waiters’s shot selection at various points, and here’s what I found:

Last season, 31% of Dion’s shots were of the mid-range variety and he converted just 39% of those attempts. After coming to OKC in a trade, his mid-range frequency stayed constant, and his conversion rate barely went up (to 40%).

This season, it’s been more of the same. Overall, 31% of Waiters’s attempts were mid-range jumpers, and he’s making them at a far lower rate (just 31% this season). This statistic should feel like a spear through the heart of every Dion supporter, who believe that if he can just take smarter shots, he would become consistent offensive weapon.

Now that being said, there is a disconnect in wins and losses. When the Thunder lose, Waiters’s mid-range frequency jumps up to 35%. When the Thunder win, however, only 29% of his shots are mid-range jumpers.  And, if we’re looking for signs of life, over the last three games (all Thunder wins), only a paltry 20% of Waiters’s shots were mid-range jumpers.

It’s no coincidence that Waiters plays better when he eliminates the low-percentage mid-range jumpers. In fact, Waiters’s ability to finish in the paint is much improved over last season. Last season, Waiters made just 46% of his shots in the paint. This season, he’s converting 52% of his attempts. Over the last three games, that percentage jumps to 69%.

Similarly, his three-point shooting has improved. Last season he made just 30%, but this season he’s up to 34%. During his most-recent hot streak (the last 3 games), Waiters is making a scorching 46% from three.

The fans that have long-since vacated Waiters Island will scoff at these numbers and argue that they are nothing more than a blip, with Waiters’s long-term tendencies just itching to re-emerge. And that may be true, as his season-long numbers don’t evidence any improvement. But for anyone still aimlessly wandering around the sparsely-populated Waiters Island, there may be still some reason to hope.

THE GAMES

• Win at the Minnesota Timberwolves on January 12, 101-96
• Win vs. the Dallas Mavericks on January 13, 108-89
• Win, vs. the Minnesota Timberwolves on January 15, 113-93
• Win vs. the Miami Heat on January 17, 99-74

THE BEST PLAYER

Russell Westbrook. Two-straight triple doubles (against the Heat and the Timberwolves), and per-game averages of 12 points, 11 assists, 9 rebounds, and 2 steals earn Westbrook yet another “Best Player” nod. Westbrook now has 5 triple doubles, which is bested only by Draymond Green’s 8. Westbrook also has 26 double-doubles, which is also good enough for second-best in the NBA, behind Andre Drummond’s 34.

A note, Westbrook’s per-game averages are also deceptive because he was ejected against the Mavericks, played only 15 minutes, and missed every shot he took (including a shocking 0-4 from the free throw line). Westbrook was on his way to another triple double, with 7 rebounds and 8 assists.

THE WORST PLAYER

Anthony Morrow. Morrow struggled this week, and even got benched against the Miami Heat. In his three appearances, Morrow struggled shooting, hitting just 18% of his shots from the field, 25% from three, and a TS% of just 27%. As a result, he averaged just 2 points in 12 minutes per game, and one of the worst net ratings on the team over the last four, clocking in at -10.6.

It’s tough being a three-point specialist. If you have an off night or an off week, as Morrow had, a snapshot of only four games can be misleading about your overall contributions. So, while I name Morrow as the worst player this week, by no means am I trying to diminish his importance on this team. Even with this slow week, Morrow is still shooting better than 40% from three.

THE BEST PERFORMANCE

Russell Westbrook against the Minnesota Timberwolves (home). Westbrook’s first triple-double was the most impressive for a few reasons. First, it came in just 27 minutes of action. Second, Westbrook actually had as many shots (10) as assists (10), a rare occurrence for a volume shooter like Russ. And third, Westbrook was under control with just 2 turnovers.

THE WORST PERFORMANCE

Nick Collison against the Minnesota Timberwolves (road). Collison achieved an impressive “1000000,” against the Timberwolves in Minneapolis. 10 minutes, 0 points, 0 rebounds, 0 assists, 0 steals, 0 blocks. He also missed his lone shot attempt and both free throw attempts. Heck, he didn’t even foul anyone.

Dishonorable mention: Rookie sensation Cameron Payne tumbled back to earth after a scorching run following his insertion into the regular rotation. Against the Heat, Payne played 15 minutes, but failed to score a point, and had just 3 rebounds and 2 assists. Eh, it happens.

THE BEST PLAY

Russell Westbrook to Andre Roberson alley-oop. This is an impressive pass from Westbrook–from beyond half court, with pin-point accuracy–to Andre Roberson to complete the alley-oop.

Honorable mention: I really like the energy Payne brings, both on the court, but also on the bench (and Mitch McGary, too).

THE WORST PLAY

Dion Waiters turnover and foul against the Minnesota Timberwolves (road). Not only does Waiters make a weak pass to Collison, which is intercepted by the Timberwolves, but he then turns around and commits a dumb foul trying to recover from his miscue. That’s two whammies in the span of two seconds.

WEEK IN PREVIEW

Writer’s note: This season, I’ve tried to include a random tidbit or two about the Thunder’s upcoming opponents. I’m going to switch it up and make predictions, because people love predictions, right?

• At the Denver Nuggets on January 19 at 8:00 pm (FSOK).
  Prediction: Altitude is no problem as the Thunder cruise to a double-digit win over the Nuggets.
• Vs. the Charlotte Hornets on January 20 at 7:00 pm (FSOK).
  Prediction: Jeremy Lamb’s emotional return to Oklahoma City is overshadowed by the Thunder’s sixth straight win.
• At the Dallas Mavericks on January 22 at 8:30 pm (FSOK).
  Prediction: The Mavericks decide to actually play real NBA players, but that’s not enough to slow Westbrook as the Thunder win again.
• At the Brooklyn Nets on January 24 at 2:30 pm (FSOK).
  Prediction: This game is closer then it should be, but the Thunder pull away late to cap another unbeaten week.