Monday Bolts – 12.1.14
Kevin Pelton of ESPN Insider projects OKC at 48 wins if KD returns against New Orleans: “The Thunder loses approximately one expected win for each five games Durant misses, depending on the level of opposition. (Oklahoma City’s chances of beating the lowly Philadelphia 76ers don’t really get much worse without Durant, for example.) So if Durant doesn’t return until Christmas Day, the Thunder’s expected record would drop below 46 wins, putting their playoff chances in jeopardy. Because Westbrook’ is here, it’s not necessarily worth repeating the same exercise for him. Again, there’s a lot of uncertainty in these estimates. The Thunder might play at better than a 59-win clip when fully healthy, since last year’s record did include an extended absence for Westbrook after knee surgery. At the same time, the possibility of re-injury could keep Oklahoma City from living up to that pace. Still, the numbers make it clear that it is not yet too late for the Thunder to make a playoff push. Oklahoma City’s chances are still contingent on Durant returning to the lineup soon, but in that scenario it’s certainly possible for the Thunder to post a win total in the high 40s and reach the postseason.”
Darnell Mayberry on how OKC’s better with Russ: “With Westbrook back at the helm, the Thunder finally can get back to pushing the tempo. We saw glimpses of that Friday night. OKC scored 17 fast-break points against the Knicks after entering the game averaging a league-worst 6.1 through the first 16 games. It provided a much-needed boost to the Thunder’s offense, as OKC scored 112.8 points per 100 possessions. Through the first 16 games, the Thunder averaged just 95.2 points per 100 possessions.”
I wrote about Westbrook’s return here.
Anthony Slater on Mitch McGary’s Blue debut: “McGary was limited to 16 minutes in his Blue debut – all coming in the first half – as part of a preset plan orchestrated by the Thunder. It was a rehab assignment, similar to those commonly utilized in Major League Baseball. And it was clearly a needed one. McGary was sluggish at the start. In his first six-minute stint, the big man missed a shot, traveled on a drive and was beat for a pair of rebounds. His typically frantic, high-energy game – which might be his greatest skill – was lacking. He looked winded, at one point dropping his hands on his knees.”
Scott Cacciola of the NY Times: “Their control of the offense tends to be even more pronounced in the playoffs. Last spring, in the Thunder’s 19 postseason games, for example, Durant and Westbrook combined to take 53 percent of the shots while scoring 55 percent of the points. As great as Durant and Westbrook are — and nobody can blame Brooks for channeling everything through them — Oklahoma City has run into problems against postseason opponents who have focused on the predictability of its offense. For 14 games this month, though, Westbrook and Durant attempted zero shots and scored zero points. And it was probably a useful exercise for everyone involved.”
Sam Amick of USA Today: “But when it comes to the bigger picture, it’s safe to assume that all 29 teams outside of Oklahoma City are rooting for the Thunder to miss out on the forthcoming postseason party. Just as so many believed that the odds of LeBron James becoming a free agent last summer would increase with a loss to the San Antonio Spurs in the Finals, the widely-held belief around the league now is that the odds of Durant leaving Oklahoma City will spike if he doesn’t win a title (or two) in the next two seasons.”
